THE CHEESE WHIZARD

The Philadelphia Phillies have a problem. They have a huge problem. They can’t finish.

Indisputably perfect in their 2008 championship season was their closer, Brad Lidge. But since falling to his knees following the final out of that mystical run, Lidge has been abandoned by the very same baseball gods before whom he knelt on that holy night last October. His fastball is just a bit less precise, making his nasty slider look like just another red-light tramp, ignored as she passes by. Walks have become common, his ERA has skyrocketed to 7.17, and his perfect 48-of-48 save record of a year ago has already been replaced by 9 blown saves.

In an attempt to quell my own fears and those of my panicking brethren, I delved deeply into Baseball Reference hoping to identify a past team that has won the World Series with such a poor performance from their closer. What did I find? The only team in the last 25 years that has won the World Series with a closer who blew at least 9 regular season saves was the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. And they shouldn’t count, because their save-blower, Jason Isringhausen (10 blown), injured his hip in early September of that year and didn’t play in the 2006 playoffs. Aside from the ’06 Cards, no recent team has won a World Series when their closer has blown more than 7 save opportunities.

Panic turned to instant hysteria. “Oh, no,” I thought, “What are we going to do?”

Like any true blooded Philadelphian, I ditched Plan A – logic and reason – and moved quickly to Plan B – insecure defensiveness. Since Lidge’s atrocious stat clearly (sarcasm font needed) bars any chance of a Phillies repeat, I will cease consoling myself, and instead gather stones to throw at every other team left standing.

I got your back, Brad.

So, with even more help from Baseball Reference, here are ten stats that surely substantiate how no team mentioned below can win the World Series this year.

Preface: Tampa Bay dumped salary last night by trading Scott Kazmir to the Angels. They’re done. No team has won the World Series with an average age under 27 years since the 1969 Mets (25.8 years), so this year’s Florida Marlins (26.8 years), are done. The Braves can’t run. Seriously, they can’t. They have 47 stolen bases this season, or, 0.36 per game, which puts them on pace for 58 at season’s end. No team has ever won it all by stealing that few bases. Atlanta is done.

I’m just getting warm.

10. Texas Rangers. Although not the youngest team in history at 27.9 years, the Rangers’ youth – as often does – is wreaking havoc on their patience and pitch selection at the plate. Their 1006 strikeouts, compared to 379 walks, give them a SO/BB ratio of 2.66. Only three teams in history* (modern baseball) have won the World Series with a ratio over 2.0. And, no team has ever won the World Series with a ratio higher than 2.30 (2005 Chicago White Sox). Texas is out.

9. San Francisco Giants. Boy, do the Giants know how to ruin a good thing. Their run support is so bad (this sounds like a ‘fat momma’ joke) that if the Giants went the distance, Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.34 ERA) could be the first duo ever with ERAs under 3.00 who fail to win 16 games apiece. Only three other pitchers in World Series history have had such little run support, and never have there been two such aces on one staff. Stay tuned for what should be 6 more starts apiece, but expect the Giants to fall short.

8. Chicago White Sox. Defense wins championships. The White Sox have booted it 97 times. Their .980 fielding percentage would be the lowest since that of the 1989 Oakland A’s. And, it looks like Mark Buerhle emptied his swing-and-miss reservoir earlier this summer. The White Sox are kicked out.

7. LA Angels. The Angel’s 4.87 ERA would be the highest in history (1960) to win a World Series. And, picking up Scott Kazmir’s five-point-seven-niner won’t help. Only the 2000 New York Yankees came close to this mess, with their own 4.76 earned run nightmare. To heaven you go.

6. LA Dodgers. I could have pointed to the Dodger’s terrible homerun output, but for now, I’ll spare them any analysis of that incompetence. But where’s the starter stamina? No team has ever won the World Series with fewer than 4 complete games from their starters. The Dodgers have 1 complete game. And the guy who threw it (Eric Stults) is now enjoying the view of the tumbleweeds from the team bus rides in Triple A. Albuequerque. They can’t go the distance.

Now, it gets tougher…

5. Detroit Tigers. Here’s a weird one. No team has ever (again, since 1960) won the World Series with less than 250 doubles. The Tigers have 186 two baggers, and they are on pace to hit 239 of that variety. I think they’re in what must be called “double trouble.”

4. St. Louis Cardinals. Offensively, here’s what the Cardinals have; a .415 slugging percentage, a .746 OPS, and 129 homeruns. And don’t forget, King Albert has 40 of those bombs all to himself. No team has won with offensive numbers that low since the ’97 Marlins. And, while Ryan Ludwick, who has hit 18 homers, is likely to connect on at least 2 more before season’s end, if he doesn’t, the Cardinals would be the first team since – you guessed it – the 1982 Cardinals – to attempt to win a World Series without two twenty-homerun guys. The Cardinals are power OUTaged.

Now, it gets really tough…

3. Colorado Rockies. Personally, I’m more worried about the Rockies than I am about Brad Lidge. They’re good. They’re hot. And, they’ve done it to the Phillies before. But, try this stat on for size. Before the 2004 Red Sox, no team with more than 1100 strikeouts had ever won the World Series, and only a handful of teams with 1000 K’s had accomplished the unlikely feat. And while K counts have been rising in recent years, the Rockies 7.68 strikeouts per game puts them on pace for 1245 sit-downs at season’s end. That’s a whiff of thin air. Strike. Out.

2. Boston Red Sox. Josh Beckett is having some problems right now, but if I lived in ‘The Nation,’ I’d be more concerned with the ups and downs of the starting line-up. Offensively, no team since the 1988 Dodgers has won the World Series with more than one everyday starter hitting under .240. The Red Sox have two such stars in Jason Varitek (.224) and David Ortiz (.230.) Although not technically “everyday starters,” Nick Green, who is hitting .230, and Casey Kotchman, currently sporting a lusty .216, clearly help to lower the offensive curve. Bye-bye BoSox.

1. New York Yankees. The Yankees are very, very confident. But two things must be remembered; One, the Phillies took two-out-of-three in the regular season, on the Yanks’ home turf (what is the name of that place where they play now?). Two, the Yankees have A-Rod. Enough said.

Wow, do I feel better now. Because as every hot blooded Philadelphia fan knows, half of what propels us is the ability to scream at the other team, “We might suck, but you suck worse than we do.” So come on Brad, pull it together. In a year where everyone else is so bad, you don’t have to be perfect.

I can hardly wait for the parade.