THE CHEESE WHIZARD

Major League Baseball is no longer our grandfathers’ game. Gone are the days of players spending their entire careers with one club. In fact, I can only count seven active players who are sure bets to retire with the teams that brought them into the league, and they’ll all be gone in three or four years.

They are:

Chipper Jones, Atlanta, 1993, 1995-2010
Derek Jeter, NY Yankees, 1995-2010
Jorge Posada, NY Yankees, 1995-2010
Mariano Rivera, NY Yankees, 1995-2010
Todd Helton, Colorado, 1997-2010
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia, 2001-2010
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle, 2001-2010

Arguments could be made for Jason Varitek, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Joe Mauer, but for these players it’s too early to be sure.

Free agency has become such a supply driven market that even the 2010 World Series MVP is no longer a member of the Giants’ team he led to the championship just four months ago. That’s right, Edgar Renteria pooh-poohed the Giants’ “disrespectful” one-year offer and took his playoff heroics with him to Cincinnati.

So, to get you caught up, prepare you for your fantasy drafts, and make sure you don’t embarrass yourself in a know-nothing, know-it-all, macho, baseball conversation, in which you reveal your own ignorance with a Bobby Cox reference, here are the top ten (plus) winter relocations that will most greatly impact the 2011 Major League Baseball season.

HONORABLE MENTION:

Matt Garza and Carlos Pena are no longer Rays. They’re both Cubs. Garza should beef up the rotation, and if Pena can stop striking out (avg. 160/yr) they should combine to help the Cubs finish third in the NL Central. Bottom line…103 years.

Hideki Matsui now plays for the Oakland Athletics. Great move on Billy Beane’s part because the Japanese following in the Bay area alone could double the club’s attendance. And, at age 52 (est.) Matsui still banged 21 HRs last year in Anaheim. Not bad.


Vernon Wells will take Matsui’s place in the Angels’ line-up. The Angels didn’t land any of the big names (Werth, Crawford), so they traded Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera (nothing) to Toronto for Wells. Basically, Toronto said, “If you’ll pay this guy the $75 Million we own him over the next 4 years, you can have him.”

Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon will serve as stopgaps for the leaking ship that is the USS Tampa Bay Rays. Ramirez hasn’t been the same since his suspension for the use of PEDs in 2009 (go figure), and Damon reached the pinnacle of his career in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. That was seven years ago. Neither will hit more than 10 HRs each, neither will be a threat to steal bases, neither will bat over .275, and both will deteriorate more rapidly on Tropicana’s artificial turf. But hey, good baseball hasn’t sold tickets in Tampa Bay, so maybe these ‘Idiots’ will draw a crowd.

The San Diego Padres couldn’t afford to sign Adrian Gonzales, so instead they signed a whole new team. They picked up Jason Bartlett (SS), Orlando Hudson (2B), Cameron Maybin (CF), and Jorge Cantu (1B), all of whom will start. They also grabbed Aaron Harang (SP) who was available because the Reds just had too much pitching, and Chad Qualls (RP), who has a career 3.76 ERA. We’ll see.

The Baltimore Orioles also went with the ‘let’s just buy a whole new team,’ concept this offseason. They now have Derrick Lee (1B), Vladamir Guerrero (DH), Mark Reynolds (3B), JJ Hardy (SS), and Kevin Gregg (RP). All will start. Gregg will pitch most days. The Orioles will still finish last in the AL East.

Freddi Gonzales will manage the Atlanta Braves. I’m curious to see the Braves managed by a human being. Bobby Cox reached untouchable superhuman status about a decade ago, so questioning managerial moves in Atlanta has been unheard of for some time.


You probably don’t know David DeJesus (OF), because he has been with the Kansas City Royals (you know, that minor league club that the Twins get to play 19 times a year), but check him out. He now plays for the Oakland A’s. He has a big bat and hits for average. If he can bounce back from a torn tendon in his thumb, he could add offense to a great pitching staff.

Adrian Beltre is now the third baseman for the Texas Rangers. I don’t get it. They had a perfectly good third baseman in Michael Young. And while Beltre is an upgrade of about 6 HRs, and 9 RBI, he isn’t the emotional soul of the Texas Rangers, Michael Young is.

“Ladies and Gentlemen, in my hand, I have tonight’s Top Ten list…”

10. Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox

Although he has no ability to move at a rapid pace, can only be expected to bat .260, and will surely strike out at least 160 times, Adam Dunn is a beast. He has become a sure bet for 35 HRs and 100 RBI per season, and since he will essentially replace the 2010 platoon of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay who combined for a .235 average and over 100 strikeouts, without the power, I’d consider this a significant upgrade.

9. Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves

Uggla is now a Brave. His defense is suspect, and he’ll be playing second base behind Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, two pitchers that induce more ground balls than anyone else in the league. But he is a machine at the plate. He missed a total of 7 games in the past two seasons, and hasn’t hit less than 30 HRs since his rookie year in 2006, when he hit 27. The Braves will challenge the Phillies and Uggla will be a big part of that.

8. Jason Werth, Washington Nationals

Scott Boras strikes again. It is impossible to justify the terms of Jason Werth’s contract with the Washington Nationals. They agreed to pay the right fielder $126 Million over 7 years. Jayson Werth is a great player. He’s a five-tool guy who led the league in doubles and finished in the top ten in Runs and OBP in 2010. But that was with the Phillies, in a line-up where he batted between Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez. In Washington, he’ll bat clean-up, between Nyjer Morgan, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Laroche. In Philly, he was just a guy. In Washington he’ll be THE guy. His numbers will drop. And, for a team that finished 29th in the league hitting with runners in scoring position, the Nationals will not be helped by Werth’s .181 average in those situations. By the way, this is a team that could have re-signed Adam Dunn for $50 Million over four years. The same Adam Dunn who consistently hits 40 HRs with 100+ RBI. Now that’s a bargain.

7. Bobby Jenks, Boston Red Sox

The last time we saw Red Sox’ closer Jonathan Papelbon in the playoffs, he was completely imploding against the Angels during the 2009 NLDS. While Jenks will serve primarily as a bridge to Papelbon, don’t think that his experience closing games in Chicago wasn’t a consideration in Theo Epstein’s acquisition of the right-handed brute. He throws gas, has the lowest career ERA of anyone in the Red Sox pen, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s all fired up from his spat with former skipper Ozzie Guillen. With Papelbon closing, the Red Sox will win the AL East, but not the World Series.


6. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox

Adrian Gonzalez was the San Diego Padres entire offense for the past three years. He has missed a total of 5 starts since 2005. Astounding. But in reality, the Red Sox basically bought themselves three years with this acquisition. Three years is the age difference between Gonzalaz and former Red Sox third basemen Adrian Beltre. Kevin Youkilis will move from first to third, making room for Gonzalez and filling the void left by Beltre. So, Gonzalez is basically replacing Beltre. Ok let’s get advanced for a second. One of my favorite sabermetric stats is RAR, Runs Above Replacement. The stat is a measure of a player’s run production above that of an average minor league replacement. Gonzalez has a RAR of 50. Beltre scored a 68 on that scale in 2010. So, while the Red Sox have locked up one of the best first basemen in the game, a 28-year-old who hits for power, average, and has a great glove, they are giving up 18 runs in 2011. It’s a great trade, but it falls short on immediate impact because of what they lost in Beltre.

5. Brian Fuentes & Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics

If last year’s league stats were more than an aberration, if the steroid era is officially over, if baseball is indeed becoming a pitcher’s game again, then these were two HUGE acquisitions for the Oakland Athletics. With a stacked rotation of young studs Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzales, anchored by closer Andrew Bailey, Oakland fortified its line of defense adding this left-right punch of Fuentes and Balfour to the bullpen. The left-handed Fuentes led the AL in saves as recently as 2009, and had his lowest career WHIP mark in 2010. As for Balfour, after an incredible 2008 campaign in which he helped the Rays to the World Series with a 1.54 ERA in 51 appearances, he struggled a bit in 2009 before regaining form last year. In 2010 he appeared 57 times, striking out 56 while conceding only 17 walks. If the A’s can some how score some runs they could surprise the AL West this year.

4. Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees

What do you do when your closer, the best in the game, is about to retire? You go out and get the best young closer available to fill his shoes. Rafael Soriano is a 31-year-old who cut his teeth with the Braves, but really broke out with the Rays last year saving 45 games in 48 tries. Although he’s had numerous arm problems in the past, he has a lively 94mph fastball, a 91 mph cutter and a decent slider. The question for the Yankees will be whether they can get to the bullpen with a lead. If they do, it’s Soriano, Rivera, and game over.

3. Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox

Carl Crawford is the total package. At 29 years of age, he brings speed (49 SB), power (20HR, 90RBI) and the third ranked defensive ability among all outfielders to the middle of the Red Sox line-up. As a lefty, his power numbers should rise with Fenway’s short porch in right. His work ethic is unparalleled, his demeanor cool and calm, and he already has 21 games of post-season experience. He replaces an underperforming platoon of veteran Mike Cameron and rookie Darnell McDonald. I’m not sure Crawford would have gotten $142 Million over seven years had it not been for Werth’s $126 Million deal, but that’s a justifiable markup considering his talent and longevity.


2. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies

If you’ve read this far, then you know enough about baseball to understand that the Philadelphia Phillies starting pitching rotation is quite possibly the best staff in the history of the game. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton have the potential to do things that no group has ever done. A rotation like this buys an offense time during a slump. And while the Phillies are known for their high-powered offense, they struggled at times last summer to string together runs. In 2011 they might not needs runs, maybe just one run at a time.


1. Zack Greinke & Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers

Last year, during a discussion with one baseball executive I asked, “How can a team with offensive weapons as deadly as Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder take themselves seriously when Randy Wolf is their number two starter?” He laughed and said, “I’m not really sure what they’re expecting.”

The Brewers scored 750 runs in 2010 (3rd in the NL) and still managed to finish eight games under .500 thanks to a pitching staff that was better than only two other teams in baseball.

Acquiring Greinke alone would have put the Brewers at number six on this list. He was the 2009 AL Cy Young Award Winner, and despite an inflated ERA (4.20) in 2010, he earned a 48 RAR value, good enough to rank seventh among AL starters.

Marcum is a 29-year-old righty whose value continues to rise three years after Tommy John surgery. In 2010, he went 13-9 with a 3.54 ERA.

Both of these guys are about to get much better by moving to the NL, where they won’t deal with the DH. Along with Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have constructed a legitimate rotation with Randy Wolf a more realistic 4th starter.

This combination acquisition of starting pitching will give the Brewers what they need to compete with the Reds for the NL Central crown.