THE CHEESE WHIZARD

Everyone has that cousin. You know the one. You see him at family get-togethers and he always has an idea, an invention, or a scheme. Your uncle tells you to ignore his rambling imaginings, but how could you? After all, he’s the one teaching you to shoot pool in the basement, showing you how to make a whiffle ball rise as it crosses the plate (talk about cheese), stealing you away from boring summer card games to enjoy the splendor of a humid round of miniature golf, with two scoops in a cone to finish. We all have that cousin, right? Well, I do, and, I hope you do too.

So, when Tom emailed me one of his famous ideas this week, I took it to heart. And with Brad Lidge lost in the wilderness, and the Phillies searching for another messiah to guide them to the Promised Land, Tom’s outlandish hypothesis seemed surprisingly reasonable:

“Hey Cheese, can’t find a place for Jamie Moyer? How about as a closer? Don’t laugh…hear me out…when the game is on the line…with a 1 run deficit…what does every batter want to do? He’s looking for the magical walk-off homer…free swinging…and those are the guys that can’t hit Moyer. Hitters are much better against Jamie the second and third time through the line-up…Check out the stats. Do me a favor, and look up his ERA in the first couple innings of his starts…I think you’ll be surprised.”

I did. And, since I’m not just any ordinary flinger of cheese, I used my Whizardry to take it a step further. After all, this is not just about Jamie Moyer. This is about a team that needs a closer. This is about our team, Tom…


As I see it, Brad Lidge is done. You can give him a few more opportunities here and there for the remainder of the regular season, especially if the Braves and Fish continue to blow opportunities to pull off a copycat performance of the 2008 Phillies’ comeback. . When Lidge had similar troubles in Houston, they sat him, and it led to an even bigger disaster bordering on a total mental breakdown, so putting him completely on ice may have its larger consequences. Additionally, Lidge still has24 million in contract dollars coming to him after this season. So I think, from a management standpoint, you have to keep his head in it a little bit longer. But, as far as the playoffs and pressure situations are concerned, he's done, as in: he's on the menu at Harry The K’s tonight, well done.

So who are our other options?


JAMIE MOYER:

There are a few stats that might lead you to believe that Moyer would do really well in Save situations. Here they are:

1. In 26 appearances this season, he has NEVER walked the first batter he faced. NEVER. That bodes well for a good start to the ninth. Lidge has given more free-passes than the Cape May County beach tag checkers.

2. As Tom predicted, Moyer’s opponents’ batting average the first time through the line-up is .249. The second time through it jumps to .297, and stays about the same for their third turn.

3. Moyer’s strikeout-to-walk ratio (this is a key stat for closers) is 2.33 the first time through the line-up (anything over 2.00 is good) and it falls off to 1.87 by the third time through the line-up.

These positives aside, there are some problems with Tom’s theory...

1. Moyer’s ERA is consistent; and consistently bad. This year, it stays right around 5.47 for each of the first 4 innings. And, in 26 appearances, he gives up at least 1 run in the first inning about 60% of the time. There aren't any huge outliers to throw off the average. He gave up 3 in the first inning in a start against Toronto, and 4 in the first in a game against the Mets. Otherwise, a consistent 1 run concession in the first seems to plague a lot of his starts. Looking at the numbers, I would expect him to give up at least 1 run in every two appearances if he were to be a closer. That’s not good enough.

2. Moyer’s opponent’s batting average against him is the highest (.349) in tie-game situations, and 2nd highest (.317) when the opposing team trails by 1 run. Those are not good pressure numbers!

3. His best stats, BY FAR (BAA - Batting Average Against of .182, and only 2 ER in 51 plate appearances) come when he has a lead of 4 runs or more. It's easy to paint the corners when you have a big lead and umpires just want to shower up and have a beer. They call everything within an area code of the plate a strike, and the first round is on Moyer.

4. 46-year-olds don't do well pitching on consecutive days. No 46-year-old athlete performs well on consecutive days, unless, of course, he’s named Bonds, and has friends at BALCO.

5. Anyone who knows anything about Jamie Moyer knows that his LONG pre-game routine and his extensive mental preparation are what make him as crafty as he is when he's at his best.

So, while Tom raises a very interesting point, I can't say I agree with his hypothesis after looking at the numbers.

Where do we go next?

PEDRO MARTINEZ:

Pedro’s career numbers as a starter are so good it’s hard to get a feel for anything, but here are some amazing stats...

1. Lifetime, leadoff hitters in any inning hit .219 off of him, and his SO/BBratio is 4.26 ...WOW!

2. It gets even better than that when you look at his first time through the line-up: BAA = .210, and SO/BB 4.44 ...DOUBLE WOW!

However, Pedro is clearly a different pitcher now. This season (although its hard to tell, because he's gotten rained on twice), his best stats come during his 3rd time through the line-up. He has learned to work the ball, and rely less on power. So, while Michael Wilbon (from PTI, whom I love) thinks Pedro should close for the Phils, I think he's wrong.

Next.

BRETT MYERS:

1. The guy is a head case. Period. He has trouble settling in. His best numbers are the second time through the line-up, by far.

2. Myers walks 1 out of every 6 batters he faces in the first inning of his appearances, and that is not a stat you like in the ninth inning of a tight game.

3. Myers’ 1st Inning Stats: BAA = .260; OBP = .400; SO/BB = 1.30 ....not great, at all.

Myers can set-up. So, that leaves us with…

RYAN MADSON:

Madson gets the ball.

1. There is a statistic kept on pitchers called "Late and Close." This pertains to games in the 7th, 8th, or 9th, with the batting team tied, or within one run. THIS IS WHEN RYAN MADSON HAS HIS BEST NUMBERS! (BAA = .249; 2.50 SO/BB ratio)

2. He is even better than that in his first 25 pitches of an appearance, where his SO/BB ratio jumps to 2.89, and opponents hit only .257.

3. The first time through the line-up teams hit .258 against him. The second time through, their average balloons to .325 ...whoa now.


So, if I were Charlie Manuel, I’d let Lidge have a few more cracks at it, as long as the division lead is over 5 games. It will benefit the organization in the long run if Lidge doesn’t totally disintegrate. Ultimately, Pedro and Jamie will be there to clean up the mess in aisle (inning) 6 during the playoffs, following the starts of Lee, Hamels, Happ and Blanton. But when it comes down to crunch time Madson has both the heat and the change-up to be a closer.. It's time for him to step up and be the guy for this club.