When did the American Dream become the American Expectation? How did the struggle of our fathers and grandfathers get twisted into the sense of entitlement of today’s youth? Why is a victory no longer a reward for excellence, but instead, a birthright demanded by every competitor in every arena?
For two weeks now, America has been sitting on the couch, scrolling through the channels, nearly frantic to escape the line-up of whiners, crybabies, and sore-losers clogging the bandwidth. Video, indeed, has killed the radio star.
During President Obama’s healthcare address, Congressman Joe Wilson wasn’t being told what he wanted to hear, so he shouted, “You Lie!” He lost his cool, and may lose his house seat.
When Taylor Swift won her first MTV Video Music award – beating out Beyonce Knowles – Kanye West was so disheartened by the results, he stole the 17-year-old’s mic, but not her MoonMan (the statue presented to winners), and since then, everyone from Jay-Z, to Wilbon, to The Commander In-Chief himself thinks Kanye should be sent to the Moon, man.
Serena Williams… well, you know what Serena did. The call didn’t go her way. She pouted for a second, stared in disbelief, and then flipped the lunatic switch and tarnished her image as a great American champion, maybe, forever.
And, after last week’s college football opener, Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount, disgusted in defeat, threw a post-game sucker punch that dropped Boise State’s Byron Hout to the ground. The punch also dropped Blount from a 2nd round NFL draft prospect to, as one scout put it, “…totally undraftable.”
From Michael Jordan to Roger Federer, to Jerry Jones, I could continue, but I’ll stop.
I’ll stop because while every one of these public outbursts was an inexcusable, condemnable, pathetic tantrum by some spoiled brat unsatisfied with a given outcome, in the end, the brat becomes the loser. All of them become losers. They all let their passions get the best of them. They all stood up as individuals, and as individuals they all fell down. They all apologized – some more sincerely than others – and they all suffered. And for all of those reasons, none of the aforementioned embarrassments goes down as the most appalling of the last fortnight.
So, what does?
Monday night the Buffalo Bills flew to Foxboro to welcome Tom Brady back to the NFL. In his first game back from knee surgery, Brady was stymied by a competent Bills defense, and with just over five minutes left in the game, Buffalo led by 11 points. But after a vintage Brady touchdown drive, Leodis McKelvin, in an attempt to improve the Bills’ field position and all but ice the game, fumbled the ball during the return of the ensuing kickoff. Uh Oh.
Cue the spotlight.
Cue the hero music.
Close on Brady’s determined gaze.
Touchdown.
Pats win.
When Leodis McKelvin returned to his home in Buffalo Tuesday morning, vandals had spray painted the final score of the game, along with a large penis, on his lawn.
Hideous.
First, you’re a fan. Period. You’re not an elected official. You’re not an icon of the music industry. You’re not arguably the greatest female tennis player of all time. You’re not trying to win a national championship. (Not that any of these roles stand for an excuse). You’re a fan; that’s it; a spectator; a consumer of entertainment. You enjoy yourself at the game, or you don’t, but either way, you go home afterwards, you avoid Sportscenter, and you go to bed.
Second, as the passage goes, “He is not a full man who does not own a piece of land.” No matter how large the arena, or how grave the disappointment, to take a matter to a man’s home, to trespass and to threaten are acts of a felon, not a fan. If Serena torched the rulebook on the lawn of the line judge, or if LeGarrette Blount crashed the Boise State after-party to start a brawl, they both would go to jail.
But Third, and most critically, the cowardice revealed in the Buffalo defacement is frightening. The mob mentality in sports’ fans across the country and around the globe is dangerous in its anonymity. Just because 60,000 other goons share your displeasure with the outcome on the field doesn’t mean you cease to be an individual. Your retaliation may be faceless, or so you think, but the hurt isn’t, and your punishment won’t be either. You see, it all starts with a sneaky beer toss at an umpire in Yankee Stadium. It escalates to a spray painting in Buffalo. But it ends with a gunshot, or 12, to be exact, fired by a ‘fan,’ that killed Andres Escobar, the Columbian footballer whose misplay caused his team to be ousted from the 1994 World Cup.
On Thursday, two Buffalo teens turned themselves in for the incident at McKelvin’s house. He refused to press charges. The Erie County DA’s office may have other plans.
Of the countless video bytes I have watched this week, my most favorite was one of Jay Leno interviewing Kanye West. Speaking of Kanye’s mother, who Leno previously met, and who has since passed away, Jay asked, “Kanye, what would your mother have said about this?” All Kanye could muster were tears.
As football season heats up, and the baseball playoffs begin, this act of idiocy stands as a reminder. No matter how many people share our discontent, in the end, we are all individuals. In the end, we are not a mob. And in the heat of the moment, we shouldn’t forget to ask ourselves, “What would my mother have to say about this?”
Everyone has that cousin. You know the one. You see him at family get-togethers and he always has an idea, an invention, or a scheme. Your uncle tells you to ignore his rambling imaginings, but how could you? After all, he’s the one teaching you to shoot pool in the basement, showing you how to make a whiffle ball rise as it crosses the plate (talk about cheese), stealing you away from boring summer card games to enjoy the splendor of a humid round of miniature golf, with two scoops in a cone to finish. We all have that cousin, right? Well, I do, and, I hope you do too.
So, when Tom emailed me one of his famous ideas this week, I took it to heart. And with Brad Lidge lost in the wilderness, and the Phillies searching for another messiah to guide them to the Promised Land, Tom’s outlandish hypothesis seemed surprisingly reasonable:
“Hey Cheese, can’t find a place for Jamie Moyer? How about as a closer? Don’t laugh…hear me out…when the game is on the line…with a 1 run deficit…what does every batter want to do? He’s looking for the magical walk-off homer…free swinging…and those are the guys that can’t hit Moyer. Hitters are much better against Jamie the second and third time through the line-up…Check out the stats. Do me a favor, and look up his ERA in the first couple innings of his starts…I think you’ll be surprised.”
I did. And, since I’m not just any ordinary flinger of cheese, I used my Whizardry to take it a step further. After all, this is not just about Jamie Moyer. This is about a team that needs a closer. This is about our team, Tom…
As I see it, Brad Lidge is done. You can give him a few more opportunities here and there for the remainder of the regular season, especially if the Braves and Fish continue to blow opportunities to pull off a copycat performance of the 2008 Phillies’ comeback. . When Lidge had similar troubles in Houston, they sat him, and it led to an even bigger disaster bordering on a total mental breakdown, so putting him completely on ice may have its larger consequences. Additionally, Lidge still has24 million in contract dollars coming to him after this season. So I think, from a management standpoint, you have to keep his head in it a little bit longer. But, as far as the playoffs and pressure situations are concerned, he's done, as in: he's on the menu at Harry The K’s tonight, well done.
So who are our other options?
JAMIE MOYER:
There are a few stats that might lead you to believe that Moyer would do really well in Save situations. Here they are:
1. In 26 appearances this season, he has NEVER walked the first batter he faced. NEVER. That bodes well for a good start to the ninth. Lidge has given more free-passes than the Cape May County beach tag checkers.
2. As Tom predicted, Moyer’s opponents’ batting average the first time through the line-up is .249. The second time through it jumps to .297, and stays about the same for their third turn.
3. Moyer’s strikeout-to-walk ratio (this is a key stat for closers) is 2.33 the first time through the line-up (anything over 2.00 is good) and it falls off to 1.87 by the third time through the line-up.
These positives aside, there are some problems with Tom’s theory...
1. Moyer’s ERA is consistent; and consistently bad. This year, it stays right around 5.47 for each of the first 4 innings. And, in 26 appearances, he gives up at least 1 run in the first inning about 60% of the time. There aren't any huge outliers to throw off the average. He gave up 3 in the first inning in a start against Toronto, and 4 in the first in a game against the Mets. Otherwise, a consistent 1 run concession in the first seems to plague a lot of his starts. Looking at the numbers, I would expect him to give up at least 1 run in every two appearances if he were to be a closer. That’s not good enough.
2. Moyer’s opponent’s batting average against him is the highest (.349) in tie-game situations, and 2nd highest (.317) when the opposing team trails by 1 run. Those are not good pressure numbers!
3. His best stats, BY FAR (BAA - Batting Average Against of .182, and only 2 ER in 51 plate appearances) come when he has a lead of 4 runs or more. It's easy to paint the corners when you have a big lead and umpires just want to shower up and have a beer. They call everything within an area code of the plate a strike, and the first round is on Moyer.
4. 46-year-olds don't do well pitching on consecutive days. No 46-year-old athlete performs well on consecutive days, unless, of course, he’s named Bonds, and has friends at BALCO.
5. Anyone who knows anything about Jamie Moyer knows that his LONG pre-game routine and his extensive mental preparation are what make him as crafty as he is when he's at his best.
So, while Tom raises a very interesting point, I can't say I agree with his hypothesis after looking at the numbers.
Where do we go next?
PEDRO MARTINEZ:
Pedro’s career numbers as a starter are so good it’s hard to get a feel for anything, but here are some amazing stats...
1. Lifetime, leadoff hitters in any inning hit .219 off of him, and his SO/BBratio is 4.26 ...WOW!
2. It gets even better than that when you look at his first time through the line-up: BAA = .210, and SO/BB 4.44 ...DOUBLE WOW!
However, Pedro is clearly a different pitcher now. This season (although its hard to tell, because he's gotten rained on twice), his best stats come during his 3rd time through the line-up. He has learned to work the ball, and rely less on power. So, while Michael Wilbon (from PTI, whom I love) thinks Pedro should close for the Phils, I think he's wrong.
Next.
BRETT MYERS:
1. The guy is a head case. Period. He has trouble settling in. His best numbers are the second time through the line-up, by far.
2. Myers walks 1 out of every 6 batters he faces in the first inning of his appearances, and that is not a stat you like in the ninth inning of a tight game.
3. Myers’ 1st Inning Stats: BAA = .260; OBP = .400; SO/BB = 1.30 ....not great, at all.
Myers can set-up. So, that leaves us with…
RYAN MADSON:
Madson gets the ball.
1. There is a statistic kept on pitchers called "Late and Close." This pertains to games in the 7th, 8th, or 9th, with the batting team tied, or within one run. THIS IS WHEN RYAN MADSON HAS HIS BEST NUMBERS! (BAA = .249; 2.50 SO/BB ratio)
2. He is even better than that in his first 25 pitches of an appearance, where his SO/BB ratio jumps to 2.89, and opponents hit only .257.
3. The first time through the line-up teams hit .258 against him. The second time through, their average balloons to .325 ...whoa now.
So, if I were Charlie Manuel, I’d let Lidge have a few more cracks at it, as long as the division lead is over 5 games. It will benefit the organization in the long run if Lidge doesn’t totally disintegrate. Ultimately, Pedro and Jamie will be there to clean up the mess in aisle (inning) 6 during the playoffs, following the starts of Lee, Hamels, Happ and Blanton. But when it comes down to crunch time Madson has both the heat and the change-up to be a closer.. It's time for him to step up and be the guy for this club.
If you want to watch your home team play on Sunday, you might have to move.
This week, a barrage of articles were written criticizing Roger Goodell and the greedy NFL for threatening to blackout locally televised games – as they always have – if the home team doesn’t sell out the stadium 72 hours prior to kickoff. With blackouts likely in at least 5 cities, and 75% of Sunday afternoon ticket dropouts pointing to a lack of funds as their reason for cancelling subscriptions, crusading journalists are begging for the mercy of loyal fans; fans too strapped to buy a ticket; fans, who, without a local broadcast, will be unable to see their home team play.
Stop whining. And, as my father would say, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
In 1961, then commissioner Pete Rozelle (a genius), looked into the eyes of the NFL owners and said something like: “You want to make money? You want your franchises to be worth more than they are now? Then stop being selfish. Make the success of the league your priority, and your team will be richer for it.”
Did it work? You’re darn right it did.
The “League Think” mentality gave birth to a joint television deal with CBS for $2.3 million per year that has now grown to include FOX, ESPN, NBC, and DIRECTV at a whopping $2.3 BILLION per year. Rozelle basically printed his own winning Mega Millions ticket and handed it to the league.
For a revenue sharing system to work, however, there must be accountability. The big market Cowboys, Redskins and Patriots shouldn’t be asked to blindly concede 40% of their gate receipts to the greater good if small market teams, like the Jaguars, and Lions, and Rams (Oh, My!), aren’t going to do their part by fielding a competitive team and diligently marketing the product to local fans. This isn’t a free ride to The Emerald City, folks.
“We tried our best, but the economy is in shambles,” they cry!
The economy crumbled 11 months ago, and NFL owners were on the front lines. This fraternity of financially savvy tycoons knew what was in store for the American consumer a year ago. They knew full well that season ticket subscribers would be lost. They knew full well that wallets would be empty. And how did they react? Who was running their marketing departments, Laurel and Hardy? And, would someone please tell me, whatever happened to ‘thinking outside of the box?’
Every other moneymaking entity in America has been forced to adapt to the pressures of a bear market. NFL teams should not be exempt. The average NFL ticket cost $72 last year. Why not offer discounts? Why not offer single game options, or even 2 or 4 game packages, rather than the full 8-game plans that fans are now held hostage by? Why not spare season ticket holders the pain of pre-season detention, having to watch the taxi squad three or four times, when they would rather just stay at the beach for the weekend?
Here’s an idea: if so many Americans are unemployed, why not hire a few, on a commission basis, to investigate thriving local businesses in your area and recruit those profiting companies and their employees to buy up your newly vacant seats? Because let’s be real; this isn’t a 162 game baseball schedule nor an 82 game basketball schedule.
It’s a 16 game season! Only 8 are played at home! EIGHT!
That means there are only 400,000 seats to sell. That number pales in comparison to the 1.6 million tickets the flailing, basement dwelling, small-market, I-can’t-name-more-than-two-guys-on-the-team Pittsburgh Pirates of baseball sold this season.
If NFL teams failed to address these basic economic concerns, then they’re flat-out stupid. But worse, if they knowingly watched ticket sales drop while secretly hoping the league would bail them out in the end, then please, say it with me, “KEEP THEM DARK!” Punish these franchises that planned on riding the coattails of an otherwise thriving economic system.
“But, it’s the fans who suffer!” Yes, it is. That’s what they get when they root for a team run by Al Davis.
Being a football fan is a funny thing. Because, while a guy in Jacksonville might say he’s a fan of the Jaguars, and a young girl in Detroit will claim to be a Lions fan, they’re both wrong. They are both fans of the NFL. Period.
The product is not an individual team. The product is a competitive contest, between two fairly matched teams, with an unpredictable outcome. That is why we watch the games. That is why we manage fantasy teams. That is why NFL gambling is a multi-million dollar industry in Las Vegas. And, thanks to 4 major networks, satellite TV and the internet, a fan who can’t watch the Raiders from his home in Berkeley can just as easily become a fan of the Vikings, the Steelers, the Colts, or a handful of other small-market teams whose exciting, sold-out, raucous stadiums will be aired every week by a league proud to show you such an overwhelming sensory experience.
If there is any criticism to be made of the NFL, it is in its policing of non-sharable revenues. Thanks to the efforts of individualists like Jerry Jones, teams that own their own stadiums can create alternative streams of income from concessions to parking to summer concerts. And if these capitalistic ventures remain unbridled, small market teams will not be able to keep pace with an ever-rising salary cap and competitive economic demands. The very semi-socialistic foundation that has lifted the NFL to great heights will surely come crumbling down.
For now, the system works. Stop whining. Get creative. Sell some tickets.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.