It’s been a long time, but the Cheese Whizard is back.
I don’t want you to think that you were alone in your longing. I missed you too. I thought often of returning. I wanted to celebrate the Saints and the Packers with you. I wanted to question Tiger Woods’ perplexing putter swap. I wanted to rip on Lebron James and the mockery he made of his hometown during, “The Decision.” I wanted to revel at the Olympic games, cringe at the continued rise of Michael Vick, and beg for Brett Favre to quit the masochism and retire already! Again.
For the record, I never considered – not even for a second – commenting on the World Cup last summer. I was too busy sleeping between goals.
I was loneliest during the World Series last fall, and like any great love lost, things were most difficult during the holidays. The news arrived on a cold day in early December. Jason Werth was headed to Washington, in exchange for everything but the Oval Office. I cracked my knuckles, poured some coffee, and started an outline.
It got better.
A week later, my phone buzzed. Text messages dropped. Emails flooded. Cliff Lee was returning to Philly, in exchange for a Cheesesteak and a Tastykake. Bang! That was it. My brain spun. My heart pounded. I sat down to write, but the cursor just blinked, and blinked, and nothing came out.
I was heartbroken.
You see, during my absence, we relocated. The Cheese-ette (a.k.a. Mademoiselle Gruyere) and I traded in the old digs for a quainter place on the sunny side of town, and in the process, I lost my studio. The green screen, the lights, the audio setup, the editing room, the engineers, gaffers, production team, even my hair and make-up crew, all of them disappeared. How could I go on without them?
I lost my voice.
So, what finally gave? Spring, of course.
Every March, the snow melts, the air warms, basketball pretends to be interesting for a short while and alas, Spring Training begins. For those of us that grew up obsessed with playing baseball, the seasonal change from winter to spring elicits a pavlovian response more potent than any we’ve known. Our muscles sense a change. Our hearts catch fire. Our souls know that it is time to pay ball.
This blog was born of that feeling. It was a baseball blog first, and will be a baseball blog until the end. So, let’s get reacquainted with baseball, shall we...?
Major League Baseball is no longer our grandfathers’ game. Gone are the days of players spending their entire careers with one club. In fact, I can only count seven active players who are sure bets to retire with the teams that brought them into the league, and they’ll all be gone in three or four years.
They are:
Chipper Jones, Atlanta, 1993, 1995-2010
Derek Jeter, NY Yankees, 1995-2010
Jorge Posada, NY Yankees, 1995-2010
Mariano Rivera, NY Yankees, 1995-2010
Todd Helton, Colorado, 1997-2010
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia, 2001-2010
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle, 2001-2010
Arguments could be made for Jason Varitek, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Joe Mauer, but for these players it’s too early to be sure.
Free agency has become such a supply driven market that even the 2010 World Series MVP is no longer a member of the Giants’ team he led to the championship just four months ago. That’s right, Edgar Renteria pooh-poohed the Giants’ “disrespectful” one-year offer and took his playoff heroics with him to Cincinnati.
So, to get you caught up, prepare you for your fantasy drafts, and make sure you don’t embarrass yourself in a know-nothing, know-it-all, macho, baseball conversation, in which you reveal your own ignorance with a Bobby Cox reference, here are the top ten (plus) winter relocations that will most greatly impact the 2011 Major League Baseball season.
HONORABLE MENTION:
Matt Garza and Carlos Pena are no longer Rays. They’re both Cubs. Garza should beef up the rotation, and if Pena can stop striking out (avg. 160/yr) they should combine to help the Cubs finish third in the NL Central. Bottom line…103 years.
Hideki Matsui now plays for the Oakland Athletics. Great move on Billy Beane’s part because the Japanese following in the Bay area alone could double the club’s attendance. And, at age 52 (est.) Matsui still banged 21 HRs last year in Anaheim. Not bad.
Vernon Wells will take Matsui’s place in the Angels’ line-up. The Angels didn’t land any of the big names (Werth, Crawford), so they traded Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera (nothing) to Toronto for Wells. Basically, Toronto said, “If you’ll pay this guy the $75 Million we own him over the next 4 years, you can have him.”
Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon will serve as stopgaps for the leaking ship that is the USS Tampa Bay Rays. Ramirez hasn’t been the same since his suspension for the use of PEDs in 2009 (go figure), and Damon reached the pinnacle of his career in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. That was seven years ago. Neither will hit more than 10 HRs each, neither will be a threat to steal bases, neither will bat over .275, and both will deteriorate more rapidly on Tropicana’s artificial turf. But hey, good baseball hasn’t sold tickets in Tampa Bay, so maybe these ‘Idiots’ will draw a crowd.
The San Diego Padres couldn’t afford to sign Adrian Gonzales, so instead they signed a whole new team. They picked up Jason Bartlett (SS), Orlando Hudson (2B), Cameron Maybin (CF), and Jorge Cantu (1B), all of whom will start. They also grabbed Aaron Harang (SP) who was available because the Reds just had too much pitching, and Chad Qualls (RP), who has a career 3.76 ERA. We’ll see.
The Baltimore Orioles also went with the ‘let’s just buy a whole new team,’ concept this offseason. They now have Derrick Lee (1B), Vladamir Guerrero (DH), Mark Reynolds (3B), JJ Hardy (SS), and Kevin Gregg (RP). All will start. Gregg will pitch most days. The Orioles will still finish last in the AL East.
Freddi Gonzales will manage the Atlanta Braves. I’m curious to see the Braves managed by a human being. Bobby Cox reached untouchable superhuman status about a decade ago, so questioning managerial moves in Atlanta has been unheard of for some time.
You probably don’t know David DeJesus (OF), because he has been with the Kansas City Royals (you know, that minor league club that the Twins get to play 19 times a year), but check him out. He now plays for the Oakland A’s. He has a big bat and hits for average. If he can bounce back from a torn tendon in his thumb, he could add offense to a great pitching staff.
Adrian Beltre is now the third baseman for the Texas Rangers. I don’t get it. They had a perfectly good third baseman in Michael Young. And while Beltre is an upgrade of about 6 HRs, and 9 RBI, he isn’t the emotional soul of the Texas Rangers, Michael Young is.
“Ladies and Gentlemen, in my hand, I have tonight’s Top Ten list…”
10. Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox
Although he has no ability to move at a rapid pace, can only be expected to bat .260, and will surely strike out at least 160 times, Adam Dunn is a beast. He has become a sure bet for 35 HRs and 100 RBI per season, and since he will essentially replace the 2010 platoon of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay who combined for a .235 average and over 100 strikeouts, without the power, I’d consider this a significant upgrade.
9. Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves
Uggla is now a Brave. His defense is suspect, and he’ll be playing second base behind Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, two pitchers that induce more ground balls than anyone else in the league. But he is a machine at the plate. He missed a total of 7 games in the past two seasons, and hasn’t hit less than 30 HRs since his rookie year in 2006, when he hit 27. The Braves will challenge the Phillies and Uggla will be a big part of that.
8. Jason Werth, Washington Nationals
Scott Boras strikes again. It is impossible to justify the terms of Jason Werth’s contract with the Washington Nationals. They agreed to pay the right fielder $126 Million over 7 years. Jayson Werth is a great player. He’s a five-tool guy who led the league in doubles and finished in the top ten in Runs and OBP in 2010. But that was with the Phillies, in a line-up where he batted between Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez. In Washington, he’ll bat clean-up, between Nyjer Morgan, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Laroche. In Philly, he was just a guy. In Washington he’ll be THE guy. His numbers will drop. And, for a team that finished 29th in the league hitting with runners in scoring position, the Nationals will not be helped by Werth’s .181 average in those situations. By the way, this is a team that could have re-signed Adam Dunn for $50 Million over four years. The same Adam Dunn who consistently hits 40 HRs with 100+ RBI. Now that’s a bargain.
7. Bobby Jenks, Boston Red Sox
The last time we saw Red Sox’ closer Jonathan Papelbon in the playoffs, he was completely imploding against the Angels during the 2009 NLDS. While Jenks will serve primarily as a bridge to Papelbon, don’t think that his experience closing games in Chicago wasn’t a consideration in Theo Epstein’s acquisition of the right-handed brute. He throws gas, has the lowest career ERA of anyone in the Red Sox pen, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s all fired up from his spat with former skipper Ozzie Guillen. With Papelbon closing, the Red Sox will win the AL East, but not the World Series.
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox
Adrian Gonzalez was the San Diego Padres entire offense for the past three years. He has missed a total of 5 starts since 2005. Astounding. But in reality, the Red Sox basically bought themselves three years with this acquisition. Three years is the age difference between Gonzalaz and former Red Sox third basemen Adrian Beltre. Kevin Youkilis will move from first to third, making room for Gonzalez and filling the void left by Beltre. So, Gonzalez is basically replacing Beltre. Ok let’s get advanced for a second. One of my favorite sabermetric stats is RAR, Runs Above Replacement. The stat is a measure of a player’s run production above that of an average minor league replacement. Gonzalez has a RAR of 50. Beltre scored a 68 on that scale in 2010. So, while the Red Sox have locked up one of the best first basemen in the game, a 28-year-old who hits for power, average, and has a great glove, they are giving up 18 runs in 2011. It’s a great trade, but it falls short on immediate impact because of what they lost in Beltre.
5. Brian Fuentes & Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
If last year’s league stats were more than an aberration, if the steroid era is officially over, if baseball is indeed becoming a pitcher’s game again, then these were two HUGE acquisitions for the Oakland Athletics. With a stacked rotation of young studs Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzales, anchored by closer Andrew Bailey, Oakland fortified its line of defense adding this left-right punch of Fuentes and Balfour to the bullpen. The left-handed Fuentes led the AL in saves as recently as 2009, and had his lowest career WHIP mark in 2010. As for Balfour, after an incredible 2008 campaign in which he helped the Rays to the World Series with a 1.54 ERA in 51 appearances, he struggled a bit in 2009 before regaining form last year. In 2010 he appeared 57 times, striking out 56 while conceding only 17 walks. If the A’s can some how score some runs they could surprise the AL West this year.
4. Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
What do you do when your closer, the best in the game, is about to retire? You go out and get the best young closer available to fill his shoes. Rafael Soriano is a 31-year-old who cut his teeth with the Braves, but really broke out with the Rays last year saving 45 games in 48 tries. Although he’s had numerous arm problems in the past, he has a lively 94mph fastball, a 91 mph cutter and a decent slider. The question for the Yankees will be whether they can get to the bullpen with a lead. If they do, it’s Soriano, Rivera, and game over.
3. Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox
Carl Crawford is the total package. At 29 years of age, he brings speed (49 SB), power (20HR, 90RBI) and the third ranked defensive ability among all outfielders to the middle of the Red Sox line-up. As a lefty, his power numbers should rise with Fenway’s short porch in right. His work ethic is unparalleled, his demeanor cool and calm, and he already has 21 games of post-season experience. He replaces an underperforming platoon of veteran Mike Cameron and rookie Darnell McDonald. I’m not sure Crawford would have gotten $142 Million over seven years had it not been for Werth’s $126 Million deal, but that’s a justifiable markup considering his talent and longevity.
2. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies 
If you’ve read this far, then you know enough about baseball to understand that the Philadelphia Phillies starting pitching rotation is quite possibly the best staff in the history of the game. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton have the potential to do things that no group has ever done. A rotation like this buys an offense time during a slump. And while the Phillies are known for their high-powered offense, they struggled at times last summer to string together runs. In 2011 they might not needs runs, maybe just one run at a time.
1. Zack Greinke & Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers
Last year, during a discussion with one baseball executive I asked, “How can a team with offensive weapons as deadly as Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder take themselves seriously when Randy Wolf is their number two starter?” He laughed and said, “I’m not really sure what they’re expecting.”
The Brewers scored 750 runs in 2010 (3rd in the NL) and still managed to finish eight games under .500 thanks to a pitching staff that was better than only two other teams in baseball.
Acquiring Greinke alone would have put the Brewers at number six on this list. He was the 2009 AL Cy Young Award Winner, and despite an inflated ERA (4.20) in 2010, he earned a 48 RAR value, good enough to rank seventh among AL starters.
Marcum is a 29-year-old righty whose value continues to rise three years after Tommy John surgery. In 2010, he went 13-9 with a 3.54 ERA.
Both of these guys are about to get much better by moving to the NL, where they won’t deal with the DH. Along with Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have constructed a legitimate rotation with Randy Wolf a more realistic 4th starter.
This combination acquisition of starting pitching will give the Brewers what they need to compete with the Reds for the NL Central crown.
First, let’s all agree on something; despite giving us three great, highly anticipated match-ups to look forward to, the BCS is a sham. Period.
How ironic, that in America, a country built upon winning – both in history and hypothesis – we support a major college football television product that offers us full seasons of drama and action that boil to a climax, but in the end fail to deliver a clear and decisive winner. Excuse me?
This year’s Bull Crap Show (BCS) season finales will tease the audience once again. With four of the five (yes, there are FIVE) undefeated teams in the country pitted against each other in their scheduled bowls, the season will inevitably end with at least two teams still undefeated, and a computer arbitrarily naming one of them the winner.
Sounds stupid, doesn’t it?
I consider it unfair to whine about something unless you can offer a better solution.
Here’s my solution:
President Obama almost had it right when he offered up his 8-team playoff idea in a 60 Minutes interview last year. But he proposed a playoff that would begin after the regular bowl schedule commenced, and that won’t work. The “Academics” of the NCAA would pooh-pooh a schedule that has their student athletes playing football through the winter, and well into the second collegiate sports season.
Instead, I say, use the pageantry of the four existing BCS bowls to kick off the BCS Playoffs.
As it is now, the bowl season starts December 19th. We don’t even need to start that early. Start Christmas weekend. Start with the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, and Orange Bowls showcasing the ‘Elite Eight’ weekend of College Football. Two games can be played the following week, on New Year’s Day (see also “Big Ad Money”). Then the BCS Championship game can be played on January 7th, the exact date on which it’s already scheduled to occur. Winner take all. Done.
As for the old money, the tradition of conference winners typically playing in certain bowl games needs to end. A spot in a bowl must be earned by finishing in the “Top 8.” If it makes everyone more comfortable, a “Top 8” finish for a Big Ten team could earn it a priority pass directly to Pasadena. Heck, Jim Tressel can even wear a Rose boutonniere on his vest. And his Got-Hot-At-The-Right-Time-Buckeyes could do a lot of damage from the 8-seed. Starting to sound fun, huh?
As for the real money, group the ABC deal for the Rose Bowl and the Fox deal for the other BCS games into one big sum, and divvy out the money to the conferences in the order that their teams finish in the Final BCS Standings. Twenty-five percent goes to first place, eighteen percent to second place and so-on, until the conferences are compensated FAIRLY for their teams’ performance. Uh-Oh! Look out for the Mountain West Conference. Of course, such a plan would force the “Academics” to swallow hard and confess the dirty little secret that their schools are actually playing for money. Scandalous.
And, as for the city of Pasadena and the Rose Bowl Committee, they’ll just have to add ‘Float Building,’ to their ‘Pre-Holiday Things To Do’ list. They have 331 (but who's counting) rainless days per year. They can handle it.
Let’s not kid ourselves here. College Football is Minor League NFL. And what better way exists to evaluate a player’s talent than to make him perform under the utmost pressure, against the stiffest competition?
In the end, fans would get to see two more classic games; nobody would have to pretend to care about the Orange Bowl; the NCAA, the schools, and most importantly, the Scholarship Foundations would reap the benefits of a 7-game playoff in which ALL of the games matter. And, incidentally, a winner would actually be crowned.
A winner? In this country? Um, yes please.
For now, we’re talking about baseball, so if you’re not sure how to answer the question above, I’ll give you three choices:
First, you could be Fan #1. He goes to a game once a year, twice maybe, but most likely, the second game is at the invitation of a friend who paid for his ticket. He probably never played baseball on any organized team, and he only watches the MLB playoffs if his hometown team is playing.
Or, maybe you’re Fan #2. He reads about his home team most mornings when he wakes up. He had season tickets at one point, but he doesn’t anymore. He watches the playoffs partly because he likes baseball, but mostly because he wants to be able to talk about the games with his coworkers. He can tell you who the best teams in the league are, but he’d look at you funny if you said ‘Zack Greinke.”
If you’re truly obsessed, you may be Fan #3. He loves baseball. He loves it because it ties him to his father, and his grandfathers, and the men who built this country before them. He loves the magnificently cerebral experience that is a game of baseball. He definitely played, or, if not, wrote about his high school team. He watches Baseball Tonight whenever he can. If he doesn’t have season tickets, its because he either doesn’t live in his hometown, or simply can’t afford them.
It doesn’t matter what kind of fan you are. Major League Baseball will take us all.
But, if you play the game, manage the game, own the game, announce the game, promote the game, write about the game, or really, really care about the game, you must be Fan #3. You must love the game. You must stand up for it.
This week, I stood up for baseball.
In his article, which you can read by clicking here, William C. Rhoden of the New York Times claims that a Yankees-Dodgers World Series would be the only great match up for baseball. He says:
What follows is the letter I sent to Mr. Rhoden and his editors at The Times.
Dear Mr. Rhoden,
I write to commend you on your October 11th column, in which you claim that a Yankees-Dodgers World Series would be the best match-up for baseball, the only truly ‘Great Series’, and a ‘Series for the ages.’
The intention of your piece is a good one. Clearly, you care about the future of the game, and in searching for a good story you found an option that may provide a therapeutic moment of closure to the steroid era. But, I also write to challenge you, since, I would ask, “For once, why can’t baseball, alone, be the story?”
We’ve been so conditioned to dig for the ancillary plot lines, I’m afraid we’re missing the obvious beauty in the game itself. It can’t be ignored that the four teams left standing are the best four teams from the 2009 season. When was the last time that happened? These four teams finished first or second in each of their leagues, and they were the top four teams in all of baseball when playing teams with winning records. The Dodgers and Phillies are in the midst of a heavyweight bout. They traded devastating offensive blows in Game 1, and then gave us a pitching duel for the ages in Game 2. The Yankees, on the other hand, needed every bit of muscle they could muster to outlast the scrappy Angels in 13 rainy innings late into Sunday morning.
In match-ups this close and with teams this talented, the speed of the game is breathtaking. The pressure each team puts on its opponent influences every play, since any mistake could be the difference in the game, and the Series. And with games this good, the two best teams will inevitably advance to the World Series.
Besides, any way you slice it, the World Series will sell itself.
A Dodgers-Angels final would put Baseball’s biggest stage under America’s brightest lights in Los Angeles.
A Yankees-Phillies series would pit the two deepest offensive clubs against each other, and bring the defending champs back to the ring to face the most dominant franchise in World Series history.
A Phillies-Angels battle – clearly the least attractive for Fox – would still include two of the top 5 major markets in the country, and pair the two most fundamentally balanced teams in the game.
And, yes, if a Yankees-Dodgers series is what we get, it too will be great. It will be great for pitting the Yankees, a group of championship veterans managed by a second year coach, against the Dodgers, a group of future champions who are managed by the Yankees’ old veteran skipper. It will be great for matching up two teams that refused to lose in 2009. But for all the reasons that a Yankees-Dodgers World Series would be a great one, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez aren’t on that list of reasons.
If we really want to move on from the steroid era, then let’s stop talking about it altogether. Because hyping Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez – two whose faces will forever be etched in the steroid era’s stone of Mount Mash-More – would only remind America of baseball’s tainted past. It would only reinforce the persistence of baseball’s soiled decade, and the dishonesty of the game’s heroes.
Mr. Rhoden, for those of us who love the game, who care about the game, who want the steroid era to be a transgression of the past, let us not perpetuate the continuation of this sour topic. Let us instead prop up the great teams left standing, with honest heroes named Jeter, Howard, Hunter and Kemp. And let us pass on to the newest fans a postseason of great games, a strategy of winning baseball, and a tradition that is purely exhilarating.
Respectfully,
DJ Gregory, Philadelphia, PA
I have acted as a therapist of sorts all season.
Mostly, my clients have been Philadelphians. Since I live on the west coast, and can therefore watch from afar instead of being sucked into the funnel of worry and cynicism that is the local Philadelphia sports opinion, I can approach things from a slightly less emotional place. I’m a rational guy. I believe in things that make sense.
I believe in The Phillies. The Phillies make sense.
It makes sense when Charlie Manuel makes the tough decision to start JA Happ last night, a lefty, the sort that the Rockies don’t hit well.
It makes sense when he has the conviction to pull the young starter in the top of the fourth. Cholly makes tough decisions.
It makes sense when Carlos Ruiz, who, by the way, since the NLCS against the Dodgers last year is now batting .341 with 7 RBI in the post season, helps his staff out with two RBI hits tonight. Chooch is clutch.
And then the ninth inning arrives, and all you can do is hope. You just hope things keep making sense.
You hope that your leadoff hitter, Jimmy Rollins, is gutsy enough to tough out his early post season struggles to slap one through and get on base. You hope Victorino can get the bunt down and make it interesting by flying to first. You hope Utley busts it down the line, even if the ball DID go off of his shin, even if he WAS out at first base, just to give the umpire the chance to call him safe for his hustle. You hope Howard can hit a fly ball. You hope.
And on a cold night at Coors Field, it kept making sense, until…
…Brad Lidge walked in from right field, and nobody knew what made sense anymore. That’s what made last night’s finish ‘epic,’ as my dad so appropriately texted.
The moment he walked out of the bullpen I started jumping around like a 6-year-old on Christmas Eve, pulling the hair on my head from its roots, screaming, “He’s coming in! He’s coming in!”
Though Carlos Gonzales did his best to single handedly keep the Rockies in the playoffs, Lidge was clutch. With nobody but the struggling Myers, the young Bastardo, and the questionable Kendrick left behind him, Brad Lidge stepped up, rode the momentum of his team’s loyalty and got three big outs. He saved the game, and, ultimately, it makes no sense.
Side note, I’d have paid a few ‘G’s’ to have been a ‘fly on the mound’ for Charlie Manuel’s think tank session before Helton’s at bat in the ninth. Seemed like he said something like, “Pitch around Helton, I know you’ve got Tulowitzki…oh, and don’t screw up again.”
For a game that relies so heavily on numbers, and trends, and rationale, the climax of Game Three was an unforgettable moment in Philadelphia sports history where the hero closer who limped into the playoffs got reinvented by postseason pressure; resurrected by pure emotion.
The Phillies proved themselves to be the resilient bunch they claimed to be all week with a gutsy, come from behind victory, in a frigidly hostile environment, capped by an unimaginable ninth inning. They found a way to win when it made sense. They found a way to win when it made no sense.
They know how to do it.
After all, they’re still the champs.
When did the American Dream become the American Expectation? How did the struggle of our fathers and grandfathers get twisted into the sense of entitlement of today’s youth? Why is a victory no longer a reward for excellence, but instead, a birthright demanded by every competitor in every arena?
For two weeks now, America has been sitting on the couch, scrolling through the channels, nearly frantic to escape the line-up of whiners, crybabies, and sore-losers clogging the bandwidth. Video, indeed, has killed the radio star.
During President Obama’s healthcare address, Congressman Joe Wilson wasn’t being told what he wanted to hear, so he shouted, “You Lie!” He lost his cool, and may lose his house seat.
When Taylor Swift won her first MTV Video Music award – beating out Beyonce Knowles – Kanye West was so disheartened by the results, he stole the 17-year-old’s mic, but not her MoonMan (the statue presented to winners), and since then, everyone from Jay-Z, to Wilbon, to The Commander In-Chief himself thinks Kanye should be sent to the Moon, man.
Serena Williams… well, you know what Serena did. The call didn’t go her way. She pouted for a second, stared in disbelief, and then flipped the lunatic switch and tarnished her image as a great American champion, maybe, forever.
And, after last week’s college football opener, Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount, disgusted in defeat, threw a post-game sucker punch that dropped Boise State’s Byron Hout to the ground. The punch also dropped Blount from a 2nd round NFL draft prospect to, as one scout put it, “…totally undraftable.”
From Michael Jordan to Roger Federer, to Jerry Jones, I could continue, but I’ll stop.
I’ll stop because while every one of these public outbursts was an inexcusable, condemnable, pathetic tantrum by some spoiled brat unsatisfied with a given outcome, in the end, the brat becomes the loser. All of them become losers. They all let their passions get the best of them. They all stood up as individuals, and as individuals they all fell down. They all apologized – some more sincerely than others – and they all suffered. And for all of those reasons, none of the aforementioned embarrassments goes down as the most appalling of the last fortnight.
So, what does?
Monday night the Buffalo Bills flew to Foxboro to welcome Tom Brady back to the NFL. In his first game back from knee surgery, Brady was stymied by a competent Bills defense, and with just over five minutes left in the game, Buffalo led by 11 points. But after a vintage Brady touchdown drive, Leodis McKelvin, in an attempt to improve the Bills’ field position and all but ice the game, fumbled the ball during the return of the ensuing kickoff. Uh Oh.
Cue the spotlight.
Cue the hero music.
Close on Brady’s determined gaze.
Touchdown.
Pats win.
When Leodis McKelvin returned to his home in Buffalo Tuesday morning, vandals had spray painted the final score of the game, along with a large penis, on his lawn.
Hideous.
First, you’re a fan. Period. You’re not an elected official. You’re not an icon of the music industry. You’re not arguably the greatest female tennis player of all time. You’re not trying to win a national championship. (Not that any of these roles stand for an excuse). You’re a fan; that’s it; a spectator; a consumer of entertainment. You enjoy yourself at the game, or you don’t, but either way, you go home afterwards, you avoid Sportscenter, and you go to bed.
Second, as the passage goes, “He is not a full man who does not own a piece of land.” No matter how large the arena, or how grave the disappointment, to take a matter to a man’s home, to trespass and to threaten are acts of a felon, not a fan. If Serena torched the rulebook on the lawn of the line judge, or if LeGarrette Blount crashed the Boise State after-party to start a brawl, they both would go to jail.
But Third, and most critically, the cowardice revealed in the Buffalo defacement is frightening. The mob mentality in sports’ fans across the country and around the globe is dangerous in its anonymity. Just because 60,000 other goons share your displeasure with the outcome on the field doesn’t mean you cease to be an individual. Your retaliation may be faceless, or so you think, but the hurt isn’t, and your punishment won’t be either. You see, it all starts with a sneaky beer toss at an umpire in Yankee Stadium. It escalates to a spray painting in Buffalo. But it ends with a gunshot, or 12, to be exact, fired by a ‘fan,’ that killed Andres Escobar, the Columbian footballer whose misplay caused his team to be ousted from the 1994 World Cup.
On Thursday, two Buffalo teens turned themselves in for the incident at McKelvin’s house. He refused to press charges. The Erie County DA’s office may have other plans.
Of the countless video bytes I have watched this week, my most favorite was one of Jay Leno interviewing Kanye West. Speaking of Kanye’s mother, who Leno previously met, and who has since passed away, Jay asked, “Kanye, what would your mother have said about this?” All Kanye could muster were tears.
As football season heats up, and the baseball playoffs begin, this act of idiocy stands as a reminder. No matter how many people share our discontent, in the end, we are all individuals. In the end, we are not a mob. And in the heat of the moment, we shouldn’t forget to ask ourselves, “What would my mother have to say about this?”
Everyone has that cousin. You know the one. You see him at family get-togethers and he always has an idea, an invention, or a scheme. Your uncle tells you to ignore his rambling imaginings, but how could you? After all, he’s the one teaching you to shoot pool in the basement, showing you how to make a whiffle ball rise as it crosses the plate (talk about cheese), stealing you away from boring summer card games to enjoy the splendor of a humid round of miniature golf, with two scoops in a cone to finish. We all have that cousin, right? Well, I do, and, I hope you do too.
So, when Tom emailed me one of his famous ideas this week, I took it to heart. And with Brad Lidge lost in the wilderness, and the Phillies searching for another messiah to guide them to the Promised Land, Tom’s outlandish hypothesis seemed surprisingly reasonable:
“Hey Cheese, can’t find a place for Jamie Moyer? How about as a closer? Don’t laugh…hear me out…when the game is on the line…with a 1 run deficit…what does every batter want to do? He’s looking for the magical walk-off homer…free swinging…and those are the guys that can’t hit Moyer. Hitters are much better against Jamie the second and third time through the line-up…Check out the stats. Do me a favor, and look up his ERA in the first couple innings of his starts…I think you’ll be surprised.”
I did. And, since I’m not just any ordinary flinger of cheese, I used my Whizardry to take it a step further. After all, this is not just about Jamie Moyer. This is about a team that needs a closer. This is about our team, Tom…
As I see it, Brad Lidge is done. You can give him a few more opportunities here and there for the remainder of the regular season, especially if the Braves and Fish continue to blow opportunities to pull off a copycat performance of the 2008 Phillies’ comeback. . When Lidge had similar troubles in Houston, they sat him, and it led to an even bigger disaster bordering on a total mental breakdown, so putting him completely on ice may have its larger consequences. Additionally, Lidge still has24 million in contract dollars coming to him after this season. So I think, from a management standpoint, you have to keep his head in it a little bit longer. But, as far as the playoffs and pressure situations are concerned, he's done, as in: he's on the menu at Harry The K’s tonight, well done.
So who are our other options?
JAMIE MOYER:
There are a few stats that might lead you to believe that Moyer would do really well in Save situations. Here they are:
1. In 26 appearances this season, he has NEVER walked the first batter he faced. NEVER. That bodes well for a good start to the ninth. Lidge has given more free-passes than the Cape May County beach tag checkers.
2. As Tom predicted, Moyer’s opponents’ batting average the first time through the line-up is .249. The second time through it jumps to .297, and stays about the same for their third turn.
3. Moyer’s strikeout-to-walk ratio (this is a key stat for closers) is 2.33 the first time through the line-up (anything over 2.00 is good) and it falls off to 1.87 by the third time through the line-up.
These positives aside, there are some problems with Tom’s theory...
1. Moyer’s ERA is consistent; and consistently bad. This year, it stays right around 5.47 for each of the first 4 innings. And, in 26 appearances, he gives up at least 1 run in the first inning about 60% of the time. There aren't any huge outliers to throw off the average. He gave up 3 in the first inning in a start against Toronto, and 4 in the first in a game against the Mets. Otherwise, a consistent 1 run concession in the first seems to plague a lot of his starts. Looking at the numbers, I would expect him to give up at least 1 run in every two appearances if he were to be a closer. That’s not good enough.
2. Moyer’s opponent’s batting average against him is the highest (.349) in tie-game situations, and 2nd highest (.317) when the opposing team trails by 1 run. Those are not good pressure numbers!
3. His best stats, BY FAR (BAA - Batting Average Against of .182, and only 2 ER in 51 plate appearances) come when he has a lead of 4 runs or more. It's easy to paint the corners when you have a big lead and umpires just want to shower up and have a beer. They call everything within an area code of the plate a strike, and the first round is on Moyer.
4. 46-year-olds don't do well pitching on consecutive days. No 46-year-old athlete performs well on consecutive days, unless, of course, he’s named Bonds, and has friends at BALCO.
5. Anyone who knows anything about Jamie Moyer knows that his LONG pre-game routine and his extensive mental preparation are what make him as crafty as he is when he's at his best.
So, while Tom raises a very interesting point, I can't say I agree with his hypothesis after looking at the numbers.
Where do we go next?
PEDRO MARTINEZ:
Pedro’s career numbers as a starter are so good it’s hard to get a feel for anything, but here are some amazing stats...
1. Lifetime, leadoff hitters in any inning hit .219 off of him, and his SO/BBratio is 4.26 ...WOW!
2. It gets even better than that when you look at his first time through the line-up: BAA = .210, and SO/BB 4.44 ...DOUBLE WOW!
However, Pedro is clearly a different pitcher now. This season (although its hard to tell, because he's gotten rained on twice), his best stats come during his 3rd time through the line-up. He has learned to work the ball, and rely less on power. So, while Michael Wilbon (from PTI, whom I love) thinks Pedro should close for the Phils, I think he's wrong.
Next.
BRETT MYERS:
1. The guy is a head case. Period. He has trouble settling in. His best numbers are the second time through the line-up, by far.
2. Myers walks 1 out of every 6 batters he faces in the first inning of his appearances, and that is not a stat you like in the ninth inning of a tight game.
3. Myers’ 1st Inning Stats: BAA = .260; OBP = .400; SO/BB = 1.30 ....not great, at all.
Myers can set-up. So, that leaves us with…
RYAN MADSON:
Madson gets the ball.
1. There is a statistic kept on pitchers called "Late and Close." This pertains to games in the 7th, 8th, or 9th, with the batting team tied, or within one run. THIS IS WHEN RYAN MADSON HAS HIS BEST NUMBERS! (BAA = .249; 2.50 SO/BB ratio)
2. He is even better than that in his first 25 pitches of an appearance, where his SO/BB ratio jumps to 2.89, and opponents hit only .257.
3. The first time through the line-up teams hit .258 against him. The second time through, their average balloons to .325 ...whoa now.
So, if I were Charlie Manuel, I’d let Lidge have a few more cracks at it, as long as the division lead is over 5 games. It will benefit the organization in the long run if Lidge doesn’t totally disintegrate. Ultimately, Pedro and Jamie will be there to clean up the mess in aisle (inning) 6 during the playoffs, following the starts of Lee, Hamels, Happ and Blanton. But when it comes down to crunch time Madson has both the heat and the change-up to be a closer.. It's time for him to step up and be the guy for this club.