The Philadelphia Phillies have a problem. They have a huge problem. They can’t finish.
Indisputably perfect in their 2008 championship season was their closer, Brad Lidge. But since falling to his knees following the final out of that mystical run, Lidge has been abandoned by the very same baseball gods before whom he knelt on that holy night last October. His fastball is just a bit less precise, making his nasty slider look like just another red-light tramp, ignored as she passes by. Walks have become common, his ERA has skyrocketed to 7.17, and his perfect 48-of-48 save record of a year ago has already been replaced by 9 blown saves.
In an attempt to quell my own fears and those of my panicking brethren, I delved deeply into Baseball Reference hoping to identify a past team that has won the World Series with such a poor performance from their closer. What did I find? The only team in the last 25 years that has won the World Series with a closer who blew at least 9 regular season saves was the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. And they shouldn’t count, because their save-blower, Jason Isringhausen (10 blown), injured his hip in early September of that year and didn’t play in the 2006 playoffs. Aside from the ’06 Cards, no recent team has won a World Series when their closer has blown more than 7 save opportunities.
Panic turned to instant hysteria. “Oh, no,” I thought, “What are we going to do?”
Like any true blooded Philadelphian, I ditched Plan A – logic and reason – and moved quickly to Plan B – insecure defensiveness. Since Lidge’s atrocious stat clearly (sarcasm font needed) bars any chance of a Phillies repeat, I will cease consoling myself, and instead gather stones to throw at every other team left standing.
I got your back, Brad.
So, with even more help from Baseball Reference, here are ten stats that surely substantiate how no team mentioned below can win the World Series this year.
Preface: Tampa Bay dumped salary last night by trading Scott Kazmir to the Angels. They’re done. No team has won the World Series with an average age under 27 years since the 1969 Mets (25.8 years), so this year’s Florida Marlins (26.8 years), are done. The Braves can’t run. Seriously, they can’t. They have 47 stolen bases this season, or, 0.36 per game, which puts them on pace for 58 at season’s end. No team has ever won it all by stealing that few bases. Atlanta is done.
I’m just getting warm.
10. Texas Rangers. Although not the youngest team in history at 27.9 years, the Rangers’ youth – as often does – is wreaking havoc on their patience and pitch selection at the plate. Their 1006 strikeouts, compared to 379 walks, give them a SO/BB ratio of 2.66. Only three teams in history* (modern baseball) have won the World Series with a ratio over 2.0. And, no team has ever won the World Series with a ratio higher than 2.30 (2005 Chicago White Sox). Texas is out.
9. San Francisco Giants. Boy, do the Giants know how to ruin a good thing. Their run support is so bad (this sounds like a ‘fat momma’ joke) that if the Giants went the distance, Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.34 ERA) could be the first duo ever with ERAs under 3.00 who fail to win 16 games apiece. Only three other pitchers in World Series history have had such little run support, and never have there been two such aces on one staff. Stay tuned for what should be 6 more starts apiece, but expect the Giants to fall short.
8. Chicago White Sox. Defense wins championships. The White Sox have booted it 97 times. Their .980 fielding percentage would be the lowest since that of the 1989 Oakland A’s. And, it looks like Mark Buerhle emptied his swing-and-miss reservoir earlier this summer. The White Sox are kicked out.
7. LA Angels. The Angel’s 4.87 ERA would be the highest in history (1960) to win a World Series. And, picking up Scott Kazmir’s five-point-seven-niner won’t help. Only the 2000 New York Yankees came close to this mess, with their own 4.76 earned run nightmare. To heaven you go.
6. LA Dodgers. I could have pointed to the Dodger’s terrible homerun output, but for now, I’ll spare them any analysis of that incompetence. But where’s the starter stamina? No team has ever won the World Series with fewer than 4 complete games from their starters. The Dodgers have 1 complete game. And the guy who threw it (Eric Stults) is now enjoying the view of the tumbleweeds from the team bus rides in Triple A. Albuequerque. They can’t go the distance.
Now, it gets tougher…
5. Detroit Tigers. Here’s a weird one. No team has ever (again, since 1960) won the World Series with less than 250 doubles. The Tigers have 186 two baggers, and they are on pace to hit 239 of that variety. I think they’re in what must be called “double trouble.”
4. St. Louis Cardinals. Offensively, here’s what the Cardinals have; a .415 slugging percentage, a .746 OPS, and 129 homeruns. And don’t forget, King Albert has 40 of those bombs all to himself. No team has won with offensive numbers that low since the ’97 Marlins. And, while Ryan Ludwick, who has hit 18 homers, is likely to connect on at least 2 more before season’s end, if he doesn’t, the Cardinals would be the first team since – you guessed it – the 1982 Cardinals – to attempt to win a World Series without two twenty-homerun guys. The Cardinals are power OUTaged.
Now, it gets really tough…
3. Colorado Rockies. Personally, I’m more worried about the Rockies than I am about Brad Lidge. They’re good. They’re hot. And, they’ve done it to the Phillies before. But, try this stat on for size. Before the 2004 Red Sox, no team with more than 1100 strikeouts had ever won the World Series, and only a handful of teams with 1000 K’s had accomplished the unlikely feat. And while K counts have been rising in recent years, the Rockies 7.68 strikeouts per game puts them on pace for 1245 sit-downs at season’s end. That’s a whiff of thin air. Strike. Out.
2. Boston Red Sox. Josh Beckett is having some problems right now, but if I lived in ‘The Nation,’ I’d be more concerned with the ups and downs of the starting line-up. Offensively, no team since the 1988 Dodgers has won the World Series with more than one everyday starter hitting under .240. The Red Sox have two such stars in Jason Varitek (.224) and David Ortiz (.230.) Although not technically “everyday starters,” Nick Green, who is hitting .230, and Casey Kotchman, currently sporting a lusty .216, clearly help to lower the offensive curve. Bye-bye BoSox.
1. New York Yankees. The Yankees are very, very confident. But two things must be remembered; One, the Phillies took two-out-of-three in the regular season, on the Yanks’ home turf (what is the name of that place where they play now?). Two, the Yankees have A-Rod. Enough said.
Wow, do I feel better now. Because as every hot blooded Philadelphia fan knows, half of what propels us is the ability to scream at the other team, “We might suck, but you suck worse than we do.” So come on Brad, pull it together. In a year where everyone else is so bad, you don’t have to be perfect.
I can hardly wait for the parade.
It was the spring of 1994, and I was still numb. The cold winter had only intensified that frozen moment in my mind’s eye. You know the one. I don’t have to remind you. I don’t have to say his name – the other JC – the savior of Toronto. His was the only walk off grand slam in the history of the World Series, and it chilled my fragile, adolescent heart.
I opened the paper, eager, hoping I might find a different box score, a happier result, or maybe even a preview to the Game 7 that never happened. Instead, I found something totally different.
There, on the second page of the Philadelphia Inquirer’s sports section, under the heading, ‘MLB STANDINGS,’ new zeros had spread and divided. These clones took their places in vertical columns of ‘Wins,’ ‘Losses,’ ‘Winning Percentage,’ ‘Games Behind,’ and ‘Last 10.’ But now, the teams, whose play they represented, were mixed and matched in six divisions, instead of four. A ‘Central’ division had sprung up – out of nowhere – in the American and National Leagues. The Braves had somehow migrated to the Eastern Division (what a novel thought, considering their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean). And, the Milwaukee Brewers had jumped ship and found a new home in the National League? Whoa!
Realignment happened prior to the 1994 season, and I was none too thrilled. I thought it would detract from the importance of “Winning the Pennant.” I believed it would mar the tradition of the leagues, and the rivalries within them. And I insisted that the term ‘Wild Card,’ was one reserved for the NFL, family poker nights, and the likelihood of my mother’s punctuality.
I was wrong. I was way wrong.
Realignment has been awesome for the game of baseball. Today is August 21st. There are less than six weeks remaining in the MLB season and 15 teams still have hopes of making the playoffs. That’s if you include teams within 5 games of a division lead or a wild card spot. If you extend that deficit to 7 games – the same margin the Phillies overcame in two weeks last season – you can resuscitate Minnesota and Seattle (for now) and raise that number to 17 teams. That’s more than half the league!
What once appeared merely to be a superfluous tidying of the divisions has changed the name of the economic-game in baseball. What MLB did fifteen years ago is now enabling more teams to engage their fans deeper into the season, thus prolonging positive revenue streams from ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, and playoff packages. Now, it doesn’t matter if you have a world champion. It doesn’t even matter if you win the pennant. A franchise maintains success as long as it fields a team that can keep fans interested by contending for a division title or staying in the hunt for a wild card spot late into the season.
On August 1st, the day after the trade deadline, ESPN’s talking heads decided (however prematurely) that enough dust had settled, so they rolled tape and handed out report cards grading teams on their just-completed deadline deals. I chose, instead, to wait a few weeks, and see how last month’s trades would help prolong playoff hopes for teams around the league.
So, without further adieu, here are “The Cheese Whizard’s Winners and Losers: MLB Trade Deadline Edition.”
WINNERS: LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Dodgers made a small move, by picking up left-handed reliever George Sherrill from the Orioles. And for a team that was leading the majors with a 62-37 record when the deadline week started, small was sufficient.
The only way the Dodgers can improve upon last year is to survive a likely NLCS match-up with the Philadelphia Phillies. The combination of the Phillies left-hand heavy line-up, the Dodger’s dearth of left-handed relievers, and the memory of the Game 4 bullpen debacle from a year ago make this move exactly what Los Chavez Ravineros needed. Besides, thanks to Kobe, their fan base will be unmoved by anything short of a world championship.
Sherrill has pitched in 9 games in Dodger blue, and hasn’t given up a run yet.
LOSERS: CHICAGO CUBS
The Cubs did nothing. Nothing. Nil. Nada.
Ok, they picked up Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow from the Pirates. But two middle inning relievers are not what you need when Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly (your #2 and #3 starters) are on the disabled list at the trade deadline. Then, to add injury to insult, Carlos Zambrano (their #1) fell to the DL just one week after the trade deadline.
I understand that the Cubs have drafted poorly, and therefore have no big prospects to use as trade bait. I understand that the Tribune Company is uncapping its felt tip – as we speak – to sign over the team, and Wrigley Field, for $920 million. I understand that Cubs’ fans will stay engaged, no matter what. But, The Cardinals made great moves for Matt Holiday, Mark DeRosa, and now John Smoltz. The Brewers and the Reds are stacked with young talent that will make them dangerous in the future. And the Cubs – the team everyone picked to win the NL Central – did nothing.
The night before the trade deadline, the Cubs slept on a ½ game lead, in the NL Central. They now trail the Cards by 7 games. They don’t have to win a world championship. They don’t even have to win the pennant. But they should stop taking advantage of an overly loyal fan base that has been patient, even while being outright abused, for over 100 years.
WINNERS: CHICAGO WHITE SOX & DETROIT TIGERS
I love the American League Central. Maybe it’s Ozzie. Maybe it’s Leyland. Maybe it’s Mauer, Morneau, and the Twins ability – every year – to stay in the hunt on a small budget. Whatever it is, I love it. But let’s be honest, no team from the AL Central will be throwing a parade this fall. (Admittedly, although, it would be way cool if the Tigers could pull off a miracle for their city in despair.)
Success in the AL Central is measured by – exactly that – success in the AL Central. So, when Detroit added Jarrod Washburn to Justin Verlander, effectively solidifying the best one-two punch in baseball, Chicago wasted no time in sealing the deal for Jake Peavy. And if Peavy comes back from injury pitching the way he did this spring, he and Mark Burhle could go toe-to-toe with Verlander and Washburn. Bravo, two times.
The Tigers lead the ChiSox by 2.5 games. This one will be tight to the finish.
LOSERS: TORONTO BLUE JAYS
JP Ricciardi’s inability to move Roy Halladay doesn’t make the Blue Jays losers. What does make them losers is everything else he has done for the past 8 years. I exaggerate.
I was ready to praise Ricciardi for sticking to his guns. He set a steep price for his ace, and nobody offered him what he wanted. So he kept Halladay and insisted that they would, instead, “Try to win with him next year.” THEN, he traded 7-time Gold Glover Scott Rolen to the Reds, GAVE Alex Rios to the Chicago White Sox (yes, I said “GAVE,” as in, “for nothing”). He then put Vernon Wells, with his 7-year, $126 million contract, on “For Sale” signs all over the country, begging, praying, that some team, any team with a wallet, really, would take Wells off his hands.
Who exactly is Ricciardi trying to win WITH next year?
Still, Halladay makes the Jays a hot ticket at least one night a week in 2010.
WINNERS: BOSTON RED SOX
The Red Sox made the most crucial move of the entire season. They acquired Victor Martinez from the Cleveland Indians. Though Martinez is batting .324, with 5 homeruns, and 14 RBI in just 17 games with the BoSox, the deal to acquire him was significant for other reasons.
On July 30th, David Ortiz became the latest Major League slugger to show up on “The List.” The revelation that he tested positive for PED’s in 2003 exposed not only Ortiz, but also a large contingent of Boston’s 2004 championship team.
The next day, Theo Epstein pulled the trigger on Martinez, and gave a clinic in PR. He deflected the attention from Boston’s cloudy past, and shed light on the possibility of a bright future. Well done, Theo. They don’t call you the “Boy Wonder” for nothing.
LOSERS: PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Once again, the Pirates traded everyone.
Operating a baseball franchise in a small market is difficult. Drafting well, developing within, buying low, and selling high, are all important strategies in Pittsburgh, Oakland, Minnesota, Kansas City, and a handful of other cities in baseball. And the good news is that the Pirates now have a TON of new, young talent to sift through.
But here’s what troubles me about the Pirates…
In 2001, they moved into PNC Park, which is highly regarded as one of the nicest new stadiums in baseball. Of the $216 million it cost to build the place, the Pirates organization only contributed $40 million. And while average attendance peaked at 30,000 per night during the stadium’s first few seasons, last years average fell to 20,113, and last week, attendance failed to crack 13,000 during a three game set with the Brewers.
Playing the financial game is one thing. But when a kid walks into a ballpark and finds that the guy whose jersey he is wearing doesn’t play for the team anymore, he’s going to be hurt. And so is the team.
WINNERS: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
I won’t brag. I won’t boast. Cliff Lee is 4-0, with 0.82 ERA, and 2 complete games since joining the defending champs.
The Phillies have made a ton of money since October, and in July, they did what was necessary to keep their fans engaged. They gave them hope of winning it all, again.
But this move was huge for another reason. Ruben Amaro Jr. is the new kid on the block, and he showed his brass in a pressure cooker of a situation. Where many a young GM might have taken the bait, he passed on Roy Halladay, who is now 2-3 with a 3.41 ERA since the trade deadline, and held on to his valued treasures, in JA Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown.
When it was reported that Michael Vick had signed a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles, my mind paged through all possible excuses for why NOT to comment on the Eagles and Vick. I wanted no part of it. But you all refused, and here’s how it sounded.
“Dear Cheese, I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. I can’t say I’m proud of this one.”
“Hey Cheese, How ‘bout those Philadelphia Dog Killas! Ruff, Ruff!”
“Michael Vick, huh, CheeseWhizard? Why doesn’t city council just drop a bomb near South Street, and urinate on the remains? Opposing fans are going to eat you alive.”
“Whiz, I hate this. Help.”
“Dear Cheese, Michael Vick: The furtherance of that lowlife Andy Reid's goal to hire other lowlifes. Next thing you know he’ll put his own kids on the Eagles payroll. The most eloquent reason yet to hate the Eagles.”
I want to hate it. I do.
On September 12, 2007, I brought home my very own 11-week-old Boston Terrier. Marley was my first dog, and is my best friend. And when Michael Vick was indicted two weeks later for running a dog-fighting ring out of his home in Virginia, I picked up my new best friend, held her against my chest, and prayed that she would never know the trauma that Vick’s dogs experienced. I prayed that she would never encounter a monster capable of drowning, electrocuting, or shooting perfectly healthy creatures because they weren’t good enough killers themselves.
But no matter how emotionally scarred by and unforgiving we are of Michael Vick’s past transgressions, we mustn’t forget that today’s dilemma is not one of personal acceptance. Today’s dilemma is one of social restoration. Commissioner Roger Goodell, Eagles President Joe Banner, owner Jeffrey Lurie and Coach Andy Reid aren’t asking you to be Michael Vick’s friend. They’re asking you to let him have his job back. So why do we hate it so much?
Michael Vick hasn’t endured enough punishment. No, that’s not it. Guidelines for his sentencing had most legal experts forecasting a 12-18 month term for the crimes Vick committed. He spent 23 months in prison. If our society sets the rules, and our society governs the punishment, then why shouldn’t our society hold up its end of the bargain and reinstate this man? If the issue is rooted in the length of his term, then the beef is with the judicial system, not the NFL, not the Eagles, and certainly not with Michael Vick himself.
We could argue all day about sentencing, and the seemingly arbitrary nature with which today’s court’s dole out prison sentences, but the fact of the matter is prison wasn’t the most painful blow. Michael Vick lost over $100 million in endorsement contracts, filed for bankruptcy protection as his debt neared $50 million, and lost out on over two seasons during the prime of his NFL playing career.
This is a Public Relations nightmare for the Philadelphia Eagles. Sure, it is. There will be lines of protestors picketing outside Lincoln Financial Field, and likely every other stadium the Eagles’ team bus rolls into this season. But think of all the people you know who are members of PETA. They all own animals, right? Most of them have adopted those pets from the SPCA or shelters, right? Many of those animals had behavior problems, social anxieties, and maybe even ferocious and violent tendencies that pushed them to bite or endanger other dogs and even people, right? These PETA members willingly stepped in and took responsibility for animals that didn’t know any better, weren’t disciplined correctly, and were cast away by a society who let them fall to the wayside. But when given the opportunity to readmit a fallen human being, they turn their nose up in disgust, and walk away?
How can we let this man be a role model? Let’s be honest, if this were Joe The Truck Driver, nobody would care if he did his time, paid his dues, asked for his old job, and went back to business hauling loads up and down I-95 at 40 cents a mile. But this is Michael Vick, and he is a role model. Why, because we chose to make him one. But in the words of the always-eloquent Charles Barkley, “Just because I can dunk a basketball doesn’t mean I should raise your kids.” At some point, people will realize that sport is entertainment. Jamie Foxx can write a song called, “Blame It on the Alcohol,” and Britney Spears, one entitled, “If You Seek Amy.” (Sound it out people) More young girls are concerned with Lindsay Lohan’s and Nicole Richie ’s sexcapades than boys are with Vick’s deviations, but those other entertainers aren’t held to the same role model standards. Why?
Growing up at the change of the millenium, we haven’t learned our lessons from watching players live like gentlemen. We learned that from our parents. From McGuire and Palmeiro we learned not to do steroids, lest we too fall from grace. We learned not to cork our bats from watching Sammy Sosa, embarrassed. We learned how to be honest when we watched man-child Danny Almonte dominate the Little League World Series, and then forfeit his team’s third place finish when it was found out he was really 14, not 12. Sadly, we even learned how to practice safe sex from listening to Magic Johnson. Kids won’t look at Michael Vick and think it’s acceptable to kill dogs. Kids will remember what kept him out of the game for two years. And they won’t make the same mistake.
As far as the game on the field is concerned, I can’t find a reason why Vick is bad for the Eagles.
With McNabb at quarterback, Andy Reid will find other ways to use Vick – splitting him out wide, putting him in the backfield, using the direct snap – ultimately taking the defensive focus off of the banged up Brian Westbrook.
If McNabb doesn’t perform over the next two seasons, gets hurt (as he has so many times before), or can’t come to terms with the Eagles two years from now, who better to take the reigns of this west coast offense than the runner and gunner in Vick.
But, most importantly, Michael Vick could push Donovan McNabb over the hump, forcing him to be the leader that he has never been; the leader who wins a Super Bowl. McNabb has spent 9 comfortable years with this franchise, and has never been threatened by a back up. His understudies - Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, Koy Detmer, Mike McMahon, Jeff Blake, and Tim Hasselbeck – have had an average career quarterback rating of 58.2. Only Jeff Garcia, with a rating of 90.2 brought anything worthwhile to the table, and the organization let him go after he led the team to the playoffs during McNabb’s 2006 injury.
I want to hate it. I do. I just can’t justify my discontent. He’s a man, who, by our own rules, has earned another chance. Why should we be so upset about giving it to him?